April 7, 2026

March market review

Dear Clients:

All eyes were turned toward the Middle East throughout the month of March, with consequences of the US and Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran causing crude to rise from below $60 a barrel to above $100 for the first time since 2022. The major US indices ended the month down in their first major pullback of the year, with markets likely to follow the headlines and remain volatile until some clarity emerges. Bond markets shifted meaningfully as investors repriced future inflation risk and reassessed expectations for Federal Reserve activity later in the year.

“At its core, the Iran conflict is a standoff between US and Israeli efforts to degrade Iran’s military capabilities and Iran’s ability to inflict global economic pain by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz,” said Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam. “That’s why oil remains the key swing factor, with the potential to influence Fed policy, the economy and equity markets. The longer this conflict persists into April without deescalation, the greater the likelihood we’ll need to sharpen our pencils and revisit our year-end economic and asset class forecasts. As always, we’re closely monitoring developments.”

Upcoming tax refunds should add a buffer for US equities as the extra cash stimulates short-term activity, but a swift resolution to hostilities will be necessary to stave off long-term effects. A negotiated settlement leading to lower oil prices and cooling inflationary pressure would provide the most optimal resolution.

The bottom line
For now, much remains bound to the outcomes of the war in the Middle East. While hoping for a swift end to hostilities and a return to normalcy for the energy sector, only time will tell how much damage has been done and its long-term effects on oil and its many derivatives. Investors should expect heightened volatility in the short term, but remain confident that temporary geopolitical issues rarely shake the overall macro trends of long-term positions.

We hope this update finds you well and if you have any questions, that you will not hesitate to reach out at your earliest convenience.

Sincerely,

Joel, Ben & the Andrews Wealth team

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